Summary
The current forecast date is 28 March.
The forecasting model is an unweighted ensemble of three individual models:
- unweighted time series ensemble model (autoregressive ARIMA, ETS and naive models)
- regression + 7-day-lagged cases (cases mapped from UTLA to Trust using Trust-UTLA mapping in
covid19.nhs.data)
- convolution from cases to admissions (scaled; cases mapped to Trusts as above)
All models are trained on the last 6 weeks of data (from 14 February) and forecasts are made for the following 14 days.
Current forecast
By recent observed admissions

By forecast admissions

Probability of increase (scatter)

Past forecasts

